Safe and effective HIV vaccine by the end of 2030?

This event predicts whether a vaccine against HIV will be demonstrated to be both safe and effective by December 31, 2030. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be regulatory approvals or peer-reviewed Phase III clinical trial results published by recognized health authorities.

If a vaccine against HIV is shown through Phase III trials to be safe and effective, or receives regulatory approval by December 31, 2030, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Early-stage trials or preliminary results will not count. If scientific conclusions are ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consensus reporting from major medical journals and health organizations. Resolution will reflect confirmed safety and efficacy, not experimental promise. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.