Will Russia annex territory from _____ in 2026?

This event predicts whether the Russian Federation will annex territory from any of the listed countries by December 31, 2026, 23:59:59 UTC. Annexation for the purpose of this event means Russia formally claiming authority over any portion of such territory and deploying or maintaining Russian military forces exercising effective control over that area. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official announcements or legal acts issued by the Russian government asserting annexation, together with confirmation of Russian military presence and control.

If claims of annexation are disputed, unclear, or lack confirmation by authoritative sources, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will be a clear and consistent consensus reported by major international organizations or reputable news agencies (such as the United Nations, Reuters, AP, or BBC) confirming de facto annexation and effective control. These markets will be resolved according to the substantive outcome — whether Russia effectively annexes and controls territory — rather than minor technicalities of wording or recognition. If no fair determination is possible by the end of the Market Period, Futuur may cancel the markets with a public explanation.