Ukraine to maintain control over ______ through the end of 2026?

This event predicts whether the government of Ukraine will maintain effective territorial control over the listed oblasts through December 31, 2026, at 23:59 (UTC+2). For the purposes of this event, effective control means that Ukrainian civil administration, police, and customs authorities remain in place throughout the oblast, and no part of it is publicly claimed, administered, or governed by a foreign military force or separatist authority. Brief incursions or skirmishes that are fully repelled within a short period do not constitute a loss of control.

The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be observed land occupation and control as registered on Liveuamap, together with official information released by the Ukrainian government through the end of the period. If these sources are unavailable, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will include maps and assessments from the Institute for the Study of War and reporting by reputable international news organizations. These markets will be resolved according to the substantive reality of territorial control rather than minor technicalities of reporting. If no fair determination is possible, Futuur may cancel the markets with a public explanation.