Will Próspera obtain a favorable final ruling in its ICSID case against Honduras by April 6?

This event predicts whether Próspera will obtain a favorable final outcome in the arbitration Honduras Próspera Inc., St. John’s Bay Development Company LLC, and Próspera Arbitration Center LLC v. Republic of Honduras, ICSID Case No. ARB/23/2, by 12:00 AM CST on April 6, 2026. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official ICSID publications and posted case documents for ARB/23/2.

If, on or before the resolution deadline, a publicly available dispositive document (an Award/Final Award or equivalent final merits/quantum decision) shows either (i) Honduras is ordered to pay any amount of damages/restitution/interest to one or more claimants, or (ii) Honduras is found liable for at least one substantive breach and the tribunal grants material relief, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

This market also resolves "No" if a publicly available dispositive document shows the claims are dismissed on jurisdiction/admissibility without any merits liability finding and without any monetary compensation, or all substantive liability claims are rejected with no material relief. Procedural orders and decisions only on preliminary objections do not resolve the market. If there is a publicly available settlement or joint official statement with monetary payment or material relief clearly tied to the Case, the market will resolve according to whether it meets the favorable-final-outcome definition; if settlement terms are not public, the market does not resolve based on settlement reports alone.

If no publicly available dispositive document or public settlement information sufficient to apply these rules exists by the deadline, Futuur will cancel the market and return wagers at their original purchase price. Source priority for public dispositive information: (1) ICSID official publications; (2) ITALAW hosted case documents; (3) UNCTAD Investment Policy Hub only if it clearly states final outcome/relief.